Disney didn’t offer up Disney+ revenue this time out, which means last week was likely just a one-time distraction. Walt Disney’s Black Widow dropped a harsh (but not unexpected) 67% in weekend two, earning $26.3 million for a new $132 million ten-day cume. Yes, that’s the biggest drop ever for an MCU title, and closer to the likes of Batman v Superman and Man of Steel than Wonder Woman or Black Panther. However, the prior “biggest second-weekend drop” MCU flicks were Spider-Man: Homecoming (from a $117 million launch in 2017) and Ant-Man and the Wasp (from a $76 million debut in 2018). Both dropped 62% on this same weekend but continued to leg out over the summer for decent 2.85x weekend-to-final multipliers.
That 79% Friday drop was “scary,” but this 67% weekend drop is a little less so. It’s not good, but it’s not “worse than Batman v Superman and Fantastic Four,” which is what Disney was looking at yesterday. Offhand, if the Scarlett Johansson-led MCU prequel continues to leg out like Ant-Man and the Wasp, it’ll still get to around $210 million domestic. However, if it merely legs out like Suicide Squad (which ended with $325 million after a $133 million debut and 67% drop in 2016), it’ll still end with around $190 million. Which, if you go back to my January of 2020 posts, feels about where we might have ended up had Black Widow played closer to Thor: The Dark World ($206 million) than Thor: Ragnarok ($315 million).
The film earned another $29.9 million overseas for a new $132 million overseas and $264 million worldwide cume. That overseas weekend gross is barely more than the $28.6 million earned by F9 following several overseas openings (including $9.5 million in France). There’s no official word on China, but I have to think it’s being held until after the blackout period sometime next month. Black Widow will soon pass The Incredible Hulk ($267 million in 2008), so it won’t have the be the lowest-grossing MCU movie ever. Its global grosses counting the $60 million in Disney+ revenue are at least $324 million or if you count the Disney+ numbers twice (since they don’t have to split 50/50 with theaters) around $384 million in global grosses.
Meanwhile, Universal’s F9 opened in several key overseas markets, including France ($9.4 million) and Germany ($6.8 million) for a $28.648 million overseas total this weekend. It earned $7.62 million (-33%) domestic to zoom past $150 million and end up within $200,000 of A Quiet Place part II ($1555 million). It’ll pass that tomorrow to become the year’s biggest domestic earner. The Vin Diesel/John Cena sequel has now earned $154.8 million domestic and $436.4 million overseas for a $591.271 million global cume. It’ll cross $600 million this week and now has a decent shot at passing Detective Chinatown 3 ($685 million mostly in China) and the $700 million mark to be the year’s second-biggest global grosser behind China’s $825 million-grossing Hi, M